Free Tool: Betting Odds Converter (American / Decimal / Fractional / Implied Probability)
Convert between all four odds formats instantly. Built-in vig remover for two-sided sportsbook markets. Quick-reference table of common lines. No signup, no tracking.
Open the tool →How We Turn Sports Win-Probability Models Into Polymarket Edge Signals in Real Time
The five-stage pipeline that converts a calibrated win probability into a tradable edge signal — score polling, fair-prob compute, WebSocket pricing, freshness gating, and order placement.
Read more →Inside a Sports Prediction Market Market-Maker: Lessons from Modeling 11 Sports
What generalizes across sports, what is sport-specific, and the operational lessons from running automated bots across NBA, NHL, MLB, NCAAMB, soccer, tennis, CS2, LoL, and more.
Read more →How to Backtest Live Win-Probability Signals Against Closing Lines at Major Sportsbooks
The methodology pitfalls that overstate backtest performance — time alignment, vig removal, walk-forward CV, and the honest discount you need to apply when projecting live results.
Read more →Avoiding Common Pitfalls When Turning Sports Models Into Real-Money Bets
Twelve mistakes that destroy bankrolls when traders move from sports models to real-money betting — over-sizing, ignoring costs, mean-reverting on information, and concrete fixes for each.
Read more →Closing Line Value: The Real Edge Signal in Prediction Markets
Why CLV beats win rate as the canonical edge metric, how to track it on prediction markets, and how to use it as a leading indicator of model degradation. Working Python code included.
Read more →Risk Management Rules for Automated Prediction Market Bots
Seven risk management rules every automated prediction market trading bot needs: position limits, drawdown stops, exposure caps, and circuit breakers. Python code included.
Read more →How to Read a Polymarket Order Book Like a Sharp Trader
Reading and interpreting the Polymarket order book. Spread, depth, size at levels, and what market-maker behavior tells you before you trade.
Read more →The Kelly Criterion for Prediction Market Sizing
Applying the Kelly Criterion when sizing positions on Polymarket and other prediction markets. Formulas, fractional Kelly, handling edge estimation errors.
Read more →Understanding Edge in Prediction Markets: Why Calibration Matters More Than Accuracy
Most prediction market traders focus on picking winners. The real alpha comes from calibrated probabilities that consistently identify mispriced contracts. Here's how to measure and exploit edge.
Read more →How to Build a Sports Prediction Trading Bot for Polymarket
A step-by-step guide to building an automated trading bot that uses calibrated win probability models to find profitable edges on sports prediction markets like Polymarket.
Read more →