Closing Line Value: The Real Edge Signal in Prediction Markets
Why CLV beats win rate as the canonical edge metric, how to track it on prediction markets, and how to use it as a leading indicator of model degradation. Working Python code included.
Read more →Risk Management Rules for Automated Prediction Market Bots
Seven risk management rules every automated prediction market trading bot needs: position limits, drawdown stops, exposure caps, and circuit breakers. Python code included.
Read more →How to Read a Polymarket Order Book Like a Sharp Trader
Reading and interpreting the Polymarket order book. Spread, depth, size at levels, and what market-maker behavior tells you before you trade.
Read more →The Kelly Criterion for Prediction Market Sizing
Applying the Kelly Criterion when sizing positions on Polymarket and other prediction markets. Formulas, fractional Kelly, handling edge estimation errors.
Read more →Understanding Edge in Prediction Markets: Why Calibration Matters More Than Accuracy
Most prediction market traders focus on picking winners. The real alpha comes from calibrated probabilities that consistently identify mispriced contracts. Here's how to measure and exploit edge.
Read more →How to Build a Sports Prediction Trading Bot for Polymarket
A step-by-step guide to building an automated trading bot that uses calibrated win probability models to find profitable edges on sports prediction markets like Polymarket.
Read more →